Through the Roof

On December 11, 2015, the Medián Public Opinion and Market Research Institute—one of the most reliable polling companies in Hungary—published the results of a November survey in which 51 percent of eligible voters with an established party preference reported that they would vote for ruling party Fidesz, compared to 27 percent for five democratic left-liberal parties, 21 percent for the radical-nationalist Jobbik party and one percent for the Workers’ Party (source in Hungarian). Medián, which began operating at the time of Hungary’s transition from communism to democracy in 1989, noted that no governing party had ever recorded such high support among sure voters in a company poll conducted more than a year and a half after a National Assembly election as Fidesz did in November 2015.

 

Graph55

Source: Medián Public Opinion and Market Research Institute poll/Orange Files

 

A total of 34 percent of all those surveyed in Medián’s November poll said that they supported Fidesz over all other parties—up from 32 percent in September, 28 percent in May and 24 percent in March. According to Medián, the November polling results indicate that over the past year Fidesz has either gained or regained 650,000 supporters in a country with a total population of around 9.9 million. A total of 46 percent of respondents in the November poll said that they believed the Orbán government was doing a good job, up from 41 percent in September, 38 percent in May and 35 percent in March.

The results of Medián’s November 2015 poll further support the conclusion that the anti-migration policies and propaganda of the Orbán government have served to greatly enhance its domestic popularity (see: Viktor’s Anti-Migration Gambit Pays Off; The Röszke Telephones; The Curtain Falls Again; Hungary and the Great Migration; Sign War I; and National Consultation on Immigration and Terrorism). And following the confirmation at the Twenty-Sixth Congress of Fidesz on December 13, 2015 that Orbán will stand as the party’s candidate for prime minister in 2018 National Assembly elections (source in Hungarian), Medián’s November polling results also suggest that only an extraordinary and currently unforeseeable political or personal occurrence will prevent Hungary’s illiberal head of government from remaining in power for at least six and a half more years (see The Start of Something Big).

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